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The Implications of Regional Variations in Medicare Spending. Part 2: Health Outcomes and Satisfaction with Care
- Elliott S. Fisher, MD, MPH;
- David E. Wennberg, MD, MPH;
- Thérèse A. Stukel, PhD;
- Daniel J. Gottlieb, MS;
- F. L. Lucas, PhD; and
- É toile L. Pinder, MS
- From Center for Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, New Hampshire; VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction Veterans Affairs Medical Center, White River Junction, Vermont; and Institute for the Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
Background: The health implications of regional differences in Medicare spending are unknown.
Objective: To determine whether regions with higher Medicare spending achieve better survival, functional status, or satisfaction with care.
Design: Cohort study.
Setting: National study of Medicare beneficiaries.
Patients: Patients hospitalized between 1993 and 1995 for hip fracture (n = 614 503), colorectal cancer (n = 195 429), or acute myocardial infarction (n = 159 393) and a representative sample (n = 18 190) drawn from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) (1992–1995).
Exposure Measurement: End-of-life spending reflects the component of regional variation in Medicare spending that is unrelated to regional differences in illness. Each cohort member's exposure to different levels of spending was therefore defined by the level of end-of-life spending in his or her hospital referral region of residence (n = 306).
Outcome Measurements: 5-year mortality rate (all four cohorts), change in functional status (MCBS cohort), and satisfaction (MCBS cohort).
Results: Cohort members were similar in baseline health status, but those in regions with higher end-of-life spending received 60% more care. Each 10% increase in regional end-of-life spending was associated with the following relative risks for death: hip fracture cohort, 1.003 (95% CI, 0.999 to 1.006); colorectal cancer cohort, 1.012 (CI, 1.004 to 1.019); acute myocardial infarction cohort, 1.007 (CI, 1.001 to 1.014); and MCBS cohort, 1.01 (CI, 0.99 to 1.03). There were no differences in the rate of decline in functional status across spending levels and no consistent differences in satisfaction.
Conclusions: Medicare enrollees in higher-spending regions receive more care than those in lower-spending regions but do not have better health outcomes or satisfaction with care. Efforts to reduce spending should proceed with caution, but policies to better manage further spending growth are warranted.
Article and Author Information
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Disclaimer: The analyses of the Cardiovascular Cooperative Project data were performed under contract number 500-99-NH01, titled “Utilization and Quality Control Peer Review Organization for the State of New Hampshire,” sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicare Services (formerly the Health Care Financing Administration), Department of Health and Human Services. The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Department of Health and Human Services, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. government.
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The authors assume full responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the analyses presented. This article is a direct result of the Health Care Quality Improvement Program initiated by the Centers for Medicare & Medicare Services, which has encouraged identification of quality improvement projects derived from analysis of patterns of care, and therefore required no special funding on the part of this contractor. Ideas and contributions to the author concerning experience with issues presented are welcomed.
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The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Centers for Medicare & Medicare Services, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation or the Department of Veterans Affairs.
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Grant Support: By the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the National Institutes of Health (CA52192), and the National Institute of Aging (1PO1 AG19783-01).
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Potential Financial Conflicts of Interest: None disclosed.
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Requests for Single Reprints: Elliott S. Fisher, MD, MPH, Strasenburgh Hall, HB 7251, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, NH 03755; VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction Veterans Affairs Medical Center, White River Junction, VT 05001; e-mail, elliott.s.fisher{at}dartmouth.edu.
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Current Author Addresses: Dr. Fisher, Mr. Gottlieb, and Ms. Pinder: Strasenburgh Hall, HB 7251, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, NH 03755.
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Drs. Wennberg and Lucas: Maine Medical Center, 22 Bramhall Street, Portland, ME 04102.
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Dr. Stukel: Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5, Canada
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Author Contributions: Conception and design: E.S. Fisher, D.E. Wennberg, T.A. Stukel, É .L. Pinder.
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Analysis and interpretation of the data: E.S. Fisher, D.E. Wennberg, T.A. Stukel, D.J. Gottlieb, F.L. Lucas, É .L. Pinder.
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Drafting of the article: E.S. Fisher, D.E. Wennberg, T.A. Stukel, D.J. Gottlieb, É .L. Pinder.
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Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: E.S. Fisher, D.E. Wennberg, D.J. Gottlieb, F.L. Lucas.
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Final approval of the article: E.S. Fisher, D.E. Wennberg, T.A. Stukel, D.J. Gottlieb, F.L. Lucas, É .L. Pinder.
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Statistical expertise: T.A. Stukel, D.J. Gottlieb.
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Obtaining of funding: E.S. Fisher.
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Administrative, technical, or logistic support: É .L. Pinder.
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Collection and assembly of data: E.S. Fisher, D.J. Gottlieb, É .L. Pinder.
- Copyright ©2004 by the American College of Physicians
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